Usually when players from Japan prepare to make the jump to MLB, they are “posted” from their team and are able to sign with any MLB team without any sort of contract restrictions. When player signs, their original Japanese team is then eligible for a release fee based on the size of the contract.

If the Major League contract is for $25 million or less, then the release fee will be 20% of the total guaranteed value of the contract. If the contract is between $25,000,001 and $50 million, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $25 million. If the contract is $50,000,001 or more, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of next $25 million plus 15 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.

However, because Sasaki is under 25 years of age, he is subject to MLB’s international bonus pool restrictions and would have to sign an amateur contract instead a Major League deal.

Roki Sasaki’s potential contract limitations

If Sasaki does end up deciding to go to MLB before he turns 25 and the Marines choose to post him, then he would not be able to sign a fully guaranteed Major League contract and teams would have to use money from their international signing pools on Sasaki.

That means that if he is signed before Dec. 15 when teams’ pools have not reset, then there are only a handful of teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers (who have the most international signing pool money left with about 2.5$) that even have enough to offer him a contract. However, if he waits until after Dec. 15, then teams’ international signing pools will reset and he could earn up to $7 million.

Even with these limitations, it may make sense for Sasaki to leave Japan for MLB. Shohei Ohtani did something similar, leaving Japan and joining the Los Angeles Angeles when he was 23. When he initially came over, he also was limited to signing an amateur free agent deal. But, that clearly worked out for him as he just signed the largest contract in Major League history this past offseason.

On the other hand, Yoshinobu Yamamoto waited until he turned 25, and was rewarded with a 12-year, $325 million contract.

If Sasaki chooses to come over now, he would be betting on himself to a certain extent. The opportunity to compete at the highest level and compete against the best players in the world is one that he should not pass up if he feels that he is ready. And, if he does succeed in the Major Leagues, he would still be in line for a potentially huge, Yamamoto-level contract when his initial deal expires.

What is standing in the way of Roki Sasaki joining Major League Baseball?

At this point, the biggest roadblock to Sasaki joining MLB would be the Marines choosing not to post him. It is in their best interests to keep him, not only competitively for his on-field performance, but because of the higher release fee they would get from the larger contract he would be able to sign when he turns 25. If they post Sasaki now and he receives a $7 million contract, then they would get just 20% of that, $1.4 million, for the release fee. In Yamamoto’s case, the Dodgers paid the Orix Buffaloes $50,625,000 based on his 12-year, $325 million contract. Using Yamamoto’s contract as a potential framework, if the Marines wait a few more seasons until he turns 25, then they could get almost 50 times the amount from whichever Major League team signs Sasaki.

The Marines are under no contractual obligation to post him, and it would absolutely make the most sense for them to keep him around until he is 25 and they can maximize their own profits. Even if Sasaki says publicly that he want to leave, he is still under contract with the Marines and they control whether or not to post him.

Every team in baseball would love to sign Sasaki. However, given MLB’s international signing restrictions, that may not happen this offseason.