Lamar Jackson is having yet another MVP caliber season, in fact, statistically he is out performing his own MVP campaign from last season. The Baltimore Ravens’ offense under Lamar has been humming all season. They currently rank third in passing, averaging 254 yards per game and 1st in rushing, averaging a seemingly impossible 191.9 yards per game. The addition of future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry has bolstered an already potent rushing attack to a nearly unstoppable one.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow has rebounded after a shaky start. Recovering from a wrist injury that likely impacted his physical ability for the first few weeks, Burrow looks back to his old self, slinging five touchdowns in the Bengals win last week. Burrow has lead the Bengals to a top 10 passing offense, ranking 7th with 236.3 yards per game; but, their rushing attack has left much to be desired, ranking 27th in the NFL with only 94.2 yards per game. 

Defensively, the fabled Ravens defense has been Jekyll and Hyde show all year. They rank dead last in passing defense, giving up 280.9 yards per game; but, conversely, the Purple Wall is ranked 1st against the run giving up a stingy 75.7 yards per game. Where the Ravens have been a tale of two types, the Bengals have ridden the middle of the road all season. They rank 17th and 18th against the pass and rush respectively. 

The Trends

Given that we have an AFC North showdown with two teams intimately familiar with each other, looking toward recent trends can provide some interesting insight into previewing the game. The Ravens and Bengals have met 58 times in the regular season with the Ravens walking away victorious in 31 of the matchups. Interestingly, against the spread, the Ravens are 7-3 in the last 10 matchups and 5-0 in the last 5. Harbaugh and company have been a money making machine for Baltimore backers. Given the division and the historic reputation for defense, a slugest with an emphasis on the big uglies up front tends to be the narrative for many AFC North matchups. However, in the last 5 matchups, all 5 games have gone over the total. Superstar quarterbacks Burrow and Jackson have proven, recently, that offense can trump defense.

The Prediction

Given the trends, a blind prediction that the Ravens cover and the game goes over the total seems like the smart play. However, looking deeper, in games where Burrow was healthy, the spread has not been as high as -6. Similarly, the game total in the last 5 matchups has not been higher than 49. In this week’s game, the Ravens are 6 point favorites with a total soaring up to 53.  Specifically, I’m anticipating that the mediocre rushing attack of the Bengals will be completely shut down by the #1 ranked rush defense of the Ravens, making the Bengals predictable on offense. I don’t expect the Ravens to be able to stop Burrow and Chase completely; but, given the predictability of the offense and the familiarity of the teams, I do expect the Ravens to take away big plays and force longer more methodical drives. On the other side of the ball, Lamar has been taking practices off for most of the year, resting and recovering throughout the week. Because this game is on short notice, giving Lamar less recovery time, I expect the Ravens to lean more heavily on their rushing attack. Strapping a game plan to the monster that is Derrick Henry is rarely a bad idea. Because of the longer and more time consuming drives that I think the Bengals will be forced into and that the Ravens may be content running the ball and the clock, I like the under as my favorite play in this game. I understand and recognize the potent offenses; but, on a short week, against a divisional opponent, and the specific matchup, I feel fairly confident that we’ll see a competitive but lower scoring game.

Best Bet: Under 53